Sarris: The biggest remaining MLB team needs and how to fill them (2024)

The dust is settling on the free-agent market, and you can count on one hand the number of unsigned players projected to be above average. But if you look at the top two-thirds of the league — the teams that could consider themselves contenders — it’s surprising to see some glaring holes remain. Let’s try to patch those up.

For the purposes of this article, a “hole” is a position on a top-20 team that is projected to give its team bottom-10 value. The easiest way to see these pop out yourself is to sort the FanGraphs depth charts by total Wins Above Replacement — the single stat that is most tightly correlated with team wins — and then look for numbers under one, since two wins are shorthand for league average.

These are the spots that emerge when you follow that chain of thought:

Nationals, second base

The Nationals are the highest-ranked team with two positions projected to produce less than a win next year — first base and second base — so naturally the hottest rumor on the market is that the team is fixated on third baseman Josh Donaldson. It makes sense, though. Add a third baseman, and top prospect Carter Kieboom moves to second base, and you add a ton of thump and fix a hole. Will Kieboom be league average? Projections say so, and maybe 43 plate appearances with an outsized strikeout rate shouldn’t convince us they’re wrong.

Even if you use a more conservative dollars-per-win number that lines up with how teams were spending on elite talent last year, a four-year, $100 million contract to Donaldson would be only a slight overpay. And it might be worth it to the Nationals to replace much of the departing thump from Anthony Rendon on a shorter contract — by the end of a four-year deal, the only high-priced free agents who would remain on the Nationals would be Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg.

Oh, and first base? Newly re-signed Howie Kendrick is projected to be a nearly league-average guy. All the Nationals need is a lefty who won’t be worse than league average, and that position won’t stick out on the depth charts. They paid a $1 million buyout to not pay Matt Adams $4 million, so they’ll be shopping at the bottom of the market, but that might be fine. Any player trying to rehabilitate his value would probably love to join a winning team, meaning lefty-swinging veterans like Travis Shaw and Yonder Alonso might sign on.

The moves:

• Sign 3B Josh Donaldson to a four-year, $100 million contract
• Sign 1B/3B Travis Shaw to a one-year, $3 million contract

Indians, second base

Christian Arroyo hit for the best combination of power and contact of his minor-league career last year in Triple A. Of course, the ball down there was flying, but that’s the same ball he’d hit in the major leagues. There’s a chance he could be a league-average player if he’s healthy and given the chance.But projections have him as the 29th-best starting second baseman going into the season, and so it’s likely the team is looking to figure something out at the position.

One of the toughest things that come up when looking at the Indians is figuring out how much they have to spend from the outside. They’re down to a projected Opening Day payroll that would be the lowest in five years and a full $33 million below last year’s final tally. But they’re still projected to be a top-10 team, even with slight holes in the outfield and the bullpen and this glaring one at second base. That’s what two infield stars and a pitching factory can do for you.

So, a competitive team with an eye on the bottom line? Sounds like they’ll try to shop for a lefty to pair with Arroyo at the bottom of the market, where getting close-to-average major-league players has become very cheap. A reunion with Jason Kipnis might make sense, a smaller deal for surprising power producer Eric Sogard could work, and if they really think Arroyo will take the job, a deal with Joe Panik might make sense for the short run.

But why not shop at the top of the bottom and get a player projected to be league average? You might be able to get a two-year deal if you replace much of what César Hernandez lost when the Phillies non-tendered him, and — other than defense — you’d be getting a fairly well-rounded player.

Oh, and only six teams are projected to have worse bullpens, so let’s spend some of their money there, too, by giving the Indians a reliever with a top-15 ERA over the past two years, built on the back of the curveball most similar to Gerrit Cole’s.

The moves:

• Sign 2B César Hernandez to a one-year, $9 million deal with a $9 million option, $2 million buyout
• Sign RP Will Harris to a two-year, $18 million deal

Brewers, third base

The Brewers are — so far — having the typical Brewers offseason. They’ve bought a couple possibly undervalued and cheap starting pitchers who have recently changed their pitching mix (Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom), they’ve made an interesting trade to replace departed production in an entirely different way (Omar Narváez), and they surprised by adding a short-term bat (Avisaíl García).

That last move probably fills the first-base slot by pushing Ryan Braun’s work in that direction most nights, but there’s still a glaring hole. Right now, the Brewers’ third-base situation is projected to be the worst in the league. That makes some sense; their current third baseman (Orlando Arcia) is a light-hitting shortstop most lauded for his glove.

How much could they spend on the position? They’re currently $30-plus million under where they ended 2020, but will they outbid the field for Donaldson? That would make the most sense for this team, and so the bidding for the star third baseman will be fascinating. But the Nationals have made a habit out of outbidding teams at the top end of the free-agent market, where the Brewers don’t have that history.

They do have a history of making shrewd trades. What about the appearance of an above-average third baseman on the trade market, one who was 10 percent better than league average with the bat last year and has a long history of pairing contact and power, and one who’s on a reasonable deal for two more years with an option that might be palatable if his power explodes in the Brewers’ friendly stadium?

Oh, yeah, this one makes a lot of sense.

The moves:

• Trade OF Corey Ray, C Jacob Nottingham, and P Dylan File to the Seattle Mariners for 3B Kyle Seager
• Sign 1B Yonder Alonso to a one-year, $3 million deal

Angels, pitcher(s)

The stat making the rounds right now is that the Angels had the worst rotation in baseball last year, and that’s true. But they also had the second-worst overall staff in baseball last year, so … they need pitchers. Even by projections, they’re 19th overall in starting pitching and 25th when it comes to the bullpen. They need pitchers of all sorts.

First, let’s get them a starting pitcher. They’ve come up short in their efforts so far, so perhaps they have found the number of years on these deals too cumbersome. That’s certainly defensible when it comes to Stephen Strasburg’s deal. If that is the case, maybe they’ll be the team that ponies up for a higher average annual value on a shorter deal for Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is one of a very small handful of pitchers who have plus command of a wide arsenal and will truly throw any pitch in any count.

Can they afford four years and $80 million for Ryu? I mean, yes, but it would push them $20 million further over last year’s number. It seems like they’re ready to compete, though, and they need the starter if they’re going to pitch six guys because of Shohei Ohtani’s unique schedule.

That same desire to go shorter on pitcher deals has them jumping into bed with Dellin Betances, who will probably want a one-year pillow deal before he starts talking to teams about multi-year deals. And putting the second-best reliever from 2014 to 2018 into that pen will certainly help the Angels’ upside, even if health will determine the actual production.

Getting this devastating breaking ball back would be huge. They’ll need to do more. Let’s also trade for a reliever on the last year of his deal on a rebuilding team.

The moves:

• Sign SP Hyun-Jin Ryu to a four-year $80 million deal
• Sign RP Dellin Betances to a one-year, $9 million deal
• Trade MI Leonardo Rivas and P Chris Rodriguez to the Pittsburgh Pirates for RP Keone Kela

Twins, starting pitcher

The Twins still have $20 million to spend before they get to last year’s final payroll, but they haven’t seen fit to plop that wad of cash down on the negotiating table for any pitcher so far. Somehow, I doubt that Dallas Keuchel will be the reason they finally do, especially since they’ve had so many chances at acquiring him.

They could sign the back-end types who are out there, like Homer Bailey and Gio González, but does that really make sense? Yes, their 22nd-ranked rotation could use some help, but at the back end, they have some interesting young arms like Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe. They really need someone who could be better than those two to move the needle much.

So let’s look at the trade market. There’s always a chance that the Marlins trade one of their starters for a hitting prospect again, but you’d have to think the Twins would rather trade pitching for pitching. The two names that leap to the front are Matt Boyd in Detroit or Jon Gray in Colorado. But, again, the Tigers have a lot of pitching bubbling up and would want a hitter.

The Rockies, though? No starting pitcher will ever want to sign there, so they need to trade for arms. With Gray a free agent in 2022, they might take the chance and trade him to reboot their staff from within. They could also maybe offer the Twins a solution to their other problem (a bat in the infield) by including Daniel Murphy in the deal, which would lower the cost of acquisition for the Twins.

In Gray, Minnesota would get a big fastball and a plus slider with an average curve for their efforts, a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation stuff who has suffered through Coors Field for too long. And they’d even have a little money left, since Gray and Murphy together won’t make $15 million this season. There’s one really high-upside risky veteran player who could soak up the rest of that money and be ready for the stretch run …

The moves:

• Trade P Lewis Thorpe, P Cole Sands and P Jovani Moran to the Rockies for SP Jon Gray and 1B Daniel Murphy
• Sign P Rich Hill to a one-year, $8 million contract

White Sox, starting pitcher(s)

The White Sox have built what looks like a core and are slowly starting to move up the rankings, all the way up to 17th right now. That spot actually gets more impressive when you consider only six teams have a worse projected starting rotation, and the fifth and sixth spots are currently held by Dylan Covey and Carson Fulmer, projected to have a combined ERA around 5.5.

For all the upside of Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech, this team could use a starting pitcher. Two starting pitchers. One with some impact, and one for more depth, to give the younger guys a chance to develop.

Though they have had some trouble getting players to take their money, the White Sox did have success with Yasmani Grandal after a pillow contract year, so maybe they turn to Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel’s lack of velocity has turned off many of the more data-driven front offices, but there is data that favors Keuchel as well. For example, over the past three years, only a very few pitchers have shown the same consistent command as measured by Stats Perform’s Command+ stat, which aims to put a number on a pitcher’s ability to shape and place the pitch as he intended.

Keuchel can put his sinker and changeup in almost precisely the same locations, and that seems like a bankable skill even if his fastball doesn’t have great velocity. At the beginning of the contract, Keuchel is an underrated No. 2 or No. 3, and at the end of the contract, the hope would be that the other young pitchers have leapfrogged him and he helps eat some innings at the back of the rotation.

And then the White Sox could add a nice veteran who pitched in a tough park last year and was surprisingly good. After all, they need more than one.

The moves:

• Sign SP Dallas Keuchel to a four-year, $80 million contract
• Sign SP Gio González to a one-year, $5 million contract

(Photo of Josh Donaldson: Hunter Martin / Getty Images)

Eno Sarris is a senior writer covering baseball analytics at The Athletic. Eno has written for FanGraphs, ESPN, Fox, MLB.com, SB Nation and others. Submit mailbag questions to esarris@theathletic.com. Follow Eno on Twitter @enosarris